KU vs Southern Mississippi Preview and Prediction

After a wild week on the Jayhawk campus, I'm sure all players, coaches and fans will be glad to have a game taking place. There is no doubt that Southern Mississippi is the toughest opponent the Jayhawks have faced this season. Various national media have put the Jayhawks on upset alert this week. The fear is that the on campus shenanigans and the tough opponent will combine to catch the Jayhawks off guard.

If Southern Mississippi wins this game, it will be because they play the better game. I have no doubt that the coaching staff will have the players focused on the game and they will be well aware that the Eagles are a very tough opponent. If anything, I think the off field activities will have the team even more fired up to show everyone that they are a top notch team deserving of accolades.

A pleasant surprise for the Jayhawks this season is the potency of their running game. Coach Mangino is pleased, but also attributes this is part to the opposing teams being focused on shutting down the passing game. Southern Mississippi has shown in their first three games that they can shut down an opponent's running game. Jake Sharp is considered a game time decision for the Jayhawks and he could be a deciding factor in who wins this battle. My guess is that Sharp will get a few carries, but he won't get a heavy workload so that he doesn't cause further damage to his calf injury. It is doubtful the Jayhawks will put up the running numbers from the first three games, though I think they will mix in enough runs to keep the Southern Miss defense guessing.

Where I expect the Jayhawks to focus the most is the passing game. They haven't shown as much as expected in the first three games and this game seems the obvious situation to air the ball out. They have three high-quality receivers in Johnathan Wilson, Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. Throw in Bradley McDougald, the true freshman, and there is no way that any defense can stop all four of them. In fact, it is dropsies that has stopped them the most so far. My only question is whether Dezmon Briscoe will be playing. Coach Mangino has not announced any suspensions, but it was reported that Briscoe was involved in some way in the scuffles this week. Regardless, I think the Jayhawks will do a good job moving the ball through the air. The Eagles did record six sacks against Virginia last week so it is imperative the line does a good job blocking and Reesing gets rid of the ball quickly.

Southern Miss is good at moving the ball on the ground. To date, the Jayhawks have done a good job of stopping the run. Again, something has to give. I think the Jayhawks will give up some yards on the ground, though the Eagles will be held below their season average. Last week the Eagles had a couple of big runs and KU has given up some big plays to UTEP and Duke. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles get a long run at some point in the game. That could even come from the Wildcat (or Wild Eagle) formation that has become so popular. UTEP used it on a couple of plays and gained positive yardage. The Jayhawks will be looking for it, though they could get caught off guard since they haven't seen it much this season.

While I think the Eagles will have some success on the ground, it will be their passing game that will determine if they score enough points to win. Austin Davis has been proven to be a good quarterback. Last week the Jayhawks gave up a big slant pass to Duke on their first offensive play. Just like the run defense, the pass defense needs to focus on not giving up the big play. I think the Jayhawks will at least keep the Eagles in check on their passing game.

I don't think we'll see a defensive slugfest this week. The defense that provides the most stops will be the difference. I think the Jayhawks offensive firepower gives them the edge and I'll predict the Jayhawks win 38-21.

KU vs Duke Wrap Up

I don't think it was any surprise that KU was able to beat Duke handily. The Jayhawks were prohibitive favorites and they again covered the betting spread with the latest victory. We did see some good things and some areas of concern in this game and that is where I'll focus in this post.

Just as in the UTEP game, the offense got off to a slow start. This isn't a problem now, but could be a more significant problem in future games. The Jayhawks have a powerful offense and they need to put points on the board early so that there is pressure on the opponent.

Part of the reason for the slow start could have been the calf injury to Jake Sharp. He was in on a few plays, but was largely ineffective. This led to increased playing time for Toben Opurum and he delivered. As impressive as he played, his comments afterwards were even more impressive. Opurum realizes that he has a lot to learn and sure seems to be absorbing as much as possible. He should be a very important weapon for the Jayhawks as they move into conference games and should benefit them for at least two more seasons.

Another area of concern were the passes dropped by KU's top receivers. There is no doubt in my mind that the coaches will work hard on this to prevent a costly drop in future games. The bright spot was that Todd Reesing seemed to be much better than the previous two games. If all the parts of the passing game start clicking, this offense could be absolutely amazing.

Of course the biggest key to the running and passing game lies with the five men up front. The wild snaps of the UTEP game seem to have been solved. Duke was able to put some pressure on Reesing and that is disturbing since the Blue Devils are not nearly as good as some of the defenses the Jayhawks will see later in the season. I know the line as a whole is very young and still learning. It is time for them to gel as they are the key to winning the big games in the conference.

If we could simply erase Duke's first drive of the game, the KU defense would look to be in good shape. Unfortunately they allowed two big plays right off the bat and gave up seven points. This reminded me of the one big play in the UTEP game for the only touchdown. Big plays like this could lead to a loss and the defense needs to address this right away. It was impressive that the defense clamped down for the rest of the first half. Even better was the pick six that started the second half.

I was certainly impressed to see the defensive front continue to put pressure on the quarterback. My question is whether they will be equally impressive when they face the much larger offensive lineman on the schedule. The defensive backfield has definitely improved since the first game and appears to have some good reserves if needed. Linebackers were considered a huge question before the season and they have shown great improvement as well. Most importantly is the role played by true freshman Huldon Tharp. Continued improvement from Tharp will certainly come as the season progresses.

So far the Jayhawks have avoided major injuries. Jake Sharp could be held out this week to insure that he will be at full health when the conference season rolls around. While there have been a couple of players fighting the flu, it is nowhere near as bad as it has been elsewhere. I doubt the Jayhawks can continue to avoid injuries and illnesses as they are part of the game. They did compensate well in Jake Sharp's absence and hopefully they can do the same if another important player is unavailable.

Next up on the schedule is Southern Mississippi. I'll do a preview of that game later in the week.

KU vs Duke Preview and Prediction

It certainly is less stressful for fans when the opponents are typically big underdogs. Yet the games aren't always exciting for the public at large and certainly can be boring to analyze. While the Jayhawks are receiving some love in the polls, they are getting zero media attention outside of the local media. I don't think that is going to change before the Oklahoma Sooners roll into Lawrence. If things go as expected, KU will be 6-0 and will likely be ranked near the Top 10. Before the season it was expected that Oklahoma would have one loss at most coming into the game. They got one loss in week one to BYU and have two very tough games with Miami and Texas before they come to Lawrence. If OU has three losses, which team will be favored? This could also be harmful to the Jayhawks' strength of schedule. It also hasn't helped that the Colorado Buffaloes have yet to show a pulse. I just don't think Coach Mangino needs this many cupcakes...and yes the pun was intended.

Let's take a look at the Duke Blue Devils. In week one Duke lost to an FCS (Division I-AA) team in Richmond 24-16. At the FCS level, Richmond is pretty darned good. Yet this was still a loss at home to a lower-level team. Last week Duke traveled to Army and won 35-19 though it took a fourth quarter rally including two interceptions for touchdowns to pull the game out. In short, Duke isn't a very good team right now. Yet they have shown improvement since David Cutcliffe took over as coach last season. Kansas fans certainly understand having a program that is just flat out bad. And we have also seen what a new coach and new commitment to the program can bring. Coach Mangino didn't win a lot of games early in his tenure, but the fans could see that the team was slowly improving. Duke hasn't won many games under Cutcliffe and that will probably continue this season. Yet they are showing some improvement and that will translate into wins down the road.

One challenge for the Jayhawks this week is preparing for two quarterbacks. Duke will start the game with Thad Lewis behind center. Cutcliffe has made it clear that Sean Renfree will also see significant playing time at quarterback. I don't think either of the quarterbacks is as good as Trevor Vittatoe of UTEP and Kansas kept him under control last week. I'm not saying that these quarterbacks won't be better than Vittatoe at some point, they just aren't there yet and I doubt that will change against the Jayhawks. Whichever quarterback is behind center, he won't be throwing to Connor Vernon. Vernon is one of Duke's better receivers and it doubtful for the game.

Duke doesn't have much of a running game with only 44.5 yards per game and that probably won't improve in this game. Leading rusher Jay Hollingsworth is questionable for the game and second leading rusher Re'quan Boyette is only probable. Throw in the Jayhawks defense against the run and I would expect most of the Duke offense to come in the air.

The injuries continues on the defensive side of the ball for Duke. Defensive lineman Vince Obhobaase, considered the heart of the defense, is listed as questionable for the game. If Duke tries to stop the KU passing game, we will probably see more of the rushing game the Jayhawks have used to pile up big numbers in the previous two games. Should Duke decide to take away the run, we might finally get to see Todd Reesing and his stable of receivers open up the attack. Given that Reesing was recruited by Duke, he may also want to show them what he has.

I don't see this game being close. Duke hasn't shown a lot of offense in their first two games and I doubt that will change this week. The Jayhawks have continued to put in a workmanlike performance each game. I'm going with 52-10 in favor of the Jayhawks.

KU vs UTEP Wrap Up

The UTEP game was really enjoyable for me as I got to sit with other traveling Jayhawks in the stands at the Sun Bowl. It was a long drive from Phoenix, but watching the Jayhawks was well worth it.

My prediction about the UTEP game came up a little bit short on offense and underestimated the defense. I guessed 45-17 and the actual result was 34-7. Let's dissect what went right and what went wrong in the game.

Once again the Jayhawks had an excellent game on the ground. Jake Sharp went over 100 yards and Toben Opurum played many meaningful minutes. Clearly he is a very talented back who should show improvement with each game. Rell Lewis also got some carries late in the game and could be another viable option for a few carries each game. What was really impressive was the running of Kale Pick, especially on the last play of the game. I don't expect that his 20+ yards per carry average will continue, but I feel a lot more comfortable that the Jayhawks will have a quality quarterback at the helm next season.

Without the offensive line opening up holes, the running game wouldn't be nearly as successful. Huge questions were posed about this group before the season and they have played great so far. The only negative has been the inaccurate snaps from both Jeremiah Hatch and Brad Thorson. Coach Mangino claims this will be corrected and I have faith that the staff will indeed get it fixed before it creates a problem in a future game. With many of the linemen being young and/or playing in a new position, I also feel there will be a lot of improvement in their play throughout the season. Even more promising is that all of the starters return next season.

Dezmon Briscoe had a very start to his season with over 100 yards in receptions. UTEP did their best to limit the Jayhawks' passing game and yet there was over 300 yards passing overall. Even more interesting is that the receivers didn't really have a great day. They dropped a few passes and made some mistakes in route running. This leaves room for improvement that I'm sure will come in future games.

Todd Reesing was disappointed in his performance and so were many fans. He didn't have an awful game though he didn't really seem to be the same quarterback we know so well. His scrambling was limited and several of his passes were off the mark. Everyone has a bad day and I'm sure Reesing will do whatever it takes to play better in the weeks to come.

Once again, I predicted the Jayhawks would score 45 and yet they only got 34. Add the three missed field goals and/or a touchdown and they would have been very close to my guess. Too many opportunities for scoring were missed. That can't happen when the conference games roll around.

Trevor Vittatoe came in with the resume of a really good quarterback. That had me worried that UTEP would put some points on the board and give the Jayhawks a scare. It is hard to complete passes when you get knocked down and the Jayhawks defense was chasing him constantly. There were six sacks on the game and many more times when he threw under heavy pressure. Given the play of the Jayhawks' defense in 2008, it was a pleasant surprise to see them playing so well in this game. The only touchdown came on one long pass play where there were some defensive breakdowns. It was a mistake that didn't affect the outcome of this game yet it will provide teachable moments so the problem can be addressed for the future.

Overall this was a very good win for the Jayhawks. They won comfortably and yet they still have a number of areas where we should see improvement as the season progresses. Next up are the Duke Blue Devils and I'll preview that game in a future post.

KU vs UTEP Preview and Prediction

While KU has played in the Sun Bowl before, they have never played UTEP in football. The fact that the Jayhawks are playing a game in Texas will certainly be exciting for the 35 players on the roster who hail from Texas. Of course they will also be playing later in the season in Lubbock and Austin. They are also hoping to play in the Big 12 Championship game in Arlington. That means several return trips to Texas before the end of the season.

UTEP has a potent offense led by a veteran quarterback in Trevor Vittatoe. How good is Vittatoe? His average yard per game in passing is fourth among active players. For reference, Todd Reesing is fifth. The KU secondary committed some awful pass interference penalties against Northern Colorado and they are definitely going to be tested. We'll find out if Clint Bowen was able to make the necessary adjustments to stop the pass this week. Another question that wasn't fully answered was whether the defensive line could put pressure on the quarterback. UTEP isn't as good as Big 12 teams, but presents a much tougher test than Northern Colorado. After this game, we should know a lot more about the KU defense.

UTEP is good on offense, but they struggle on defense. KU's passing game was not as potent last week as it had been the last two years. With the return of Dezmon Briscoe and a different opponent, I expect will see a lot more balls in the air. But I also expect that KU will continue to try and build on the rushing game they showed against Northern Colorado. It will be good to see Toben Opurum get into the game earlier so that Sharp won't carry as much of the load.

I definitely expect this game to be more competitive than we saw in the opener. Playing on the road is always a test and KU is 0-3 in their last three non-conference road games. That would be Northwestern in 2004, Toledo in 2006 and South Florida in 2008. That streak will come to an end on Saturday. My prediction is that the Jayhawks will win 45-17. I'll be back after the game to talk about what went right and what needs improvement.

KU vs Northern Colorado Wrap Up and Questions

 I don't think anyone was surprised that KU handily dispatched Northern Colorado last Saturday. In many ways this game was a tune-up for the upcoming games on the schedule. Several questions were answered for me and there are still questions that remain unanswered.

Going in to the season, there were various positions that had questions. I'm going to break down my discussion into those groups. They are running backs, offensive line, receivers, defensive line, linebackers and defensive backs. I don't think there was much we didn't already know about the kicking game, so I won't include it here. In addition to the positions already listed, I will talk about the kick return game.

Running backs: There was no question that Jake Sharp was the main running back and he was voted as the offensive player of the game by the KU coaching staff. After Jake, it was unknown if another back would emerge. Toben Opurum came in and did a very nice job, especially considering he is a true freshman. If he can give KU the "thunder and lightning" duo they had in 2007, the running game will be in great shape. I also have to give kudos to both Todd Reesing and Kale Pick who both ran well when the Northern Colorado defense had the pass covered.

Offensive line: Only two starters returned on the offensive line. One of those starters moved from tackle to center. The all-important left tackle position was manned by a redshirt freshman who had never before played tackle. Overall the line played well, but they still have unanswered questions for me. The Northern Colorado defense is not the same as what KU will see during Big 12 play. It was also discouraging that Jeff Spikes was off target on a few snaps. While I have unanswered questions, I am encouraged that the line will only continue to improve with more experience.

Receivers: This is definitely a position where the Jayhawks are extremely strong. With Dezmon Briscoe suspended for the first game, it gave some of the other receivers a chance to show what they can do. Tertavian Ingram caught a TD pass and will provide valuable depth at the position. Bradley McDougald also showed that he deserves time on the field. Very nice considering he is a true freshman. I don't think Kerry Meier and Johnathan Wilson had their best games, but I have no doubt they will have better games this season. For me, there are no unanswered questions at receiver and the Jayhawks will have plenty of quality targets to catch passes from Reesing and Pick.

Defensive line: Overall the Jayhawks needed to improve on defense from 2008 and that starts with the big boys up front. They had a good game against Northern Colorado, but I still have questions they need to answer. Northern Colorado just doesn't have the same size and quality of offensive line as KU will find in the Big 12. The defensive line got some valuable experience, but they need to continue to improve if they are going to pressure Big 12 quarterbacks and stuff Big 12 running backs.

Linebackers: KU lost all three of their starting linebackers from 2008 and so this was one of the biggest questions that needed to be answered. I'm not sure that we have the full answer yet, but the early prognosis looked good to me. Justin Springer is still recovering from a torn ACL and played a limited role in the game. As his health continues to improve, his play and playing time will also go up. Another true freshman, Huldon Tharp, made some good plays in his first college game. I'm not sure this year's linebackers will be as good as 2008, but I feel comfortable that they can do a good job.

Defensive backs: 2008 was a very tough year for the Jayhawk defensive backs. The Big 12 is loaded with great quarterbacks and they racked up a lot of yardage and touchdowns on the KU defense last year. I am very impressed with the safeties. Darrell Stuckey and Chris Harris both played very well, with Harris being voted the defensive player of the game by the KU coaches. Anthony Davis was flagged three times for pass interference and his replacement Calvin Rubles was also flagged. This has me worried a bit, but the coaches feel it was just first game jitters. UTEP has a solid passing game and so we'll have to see how these guys rebound in the second game. For now, I still have questions that need to be answered.

Kick returners: Coach Mangino stressed that the punt/kick return game needed to improve. Unfortunately the suspension of Dezmon Briscoe left many of the questions unanswered. I wasn't overly impressed with the return game against Northern Colorado, but there were signs of improvement from the poor performance of 2008. With Briscoe back against UTEP, I'm hoping to see a lot more improvement.

Northern Colorado wasn't the level of opponent that can answer many of these questions, but the coaches were able to try out a variety of new players and new schemes. I'm anxiously awaiting the game in El Paso as it should answer a lot more questions about how far the Jayhawks can move up the polls this season. I'll dissect that game in a couple of days.

KU vs Northern Colorado Preview and Prediction

Just over a day to go before KU begins their 2009 football season. 2007 was a dream season and 2008 probably seemed a letdown to fans. Considering where the KU football program has been, it is really difficult to call an 8-5 season a letdown. There are certainly some questions about the 2009 team and this first game should at least help answer some of those questions.

Northern Colorado is an FCS (formerly 1-AA) team and they have only won 3 games in the past three seasons. That means KU shouldn't have any problem winning this game. Lest we get too excited, we should remember how Appalachian State beat #5 Michigan in the opener just two years ago. Of course Appalachian State is a powerhouse in the FCS division and that can't be said for Northern Colorado.

In the Sagarin ratings, KU is ranked #25 with an 80.09 score and Northern Colorado is #198 with a score of 42.32. In order to calculate the theoretical margin of victory, you should add 3.14 points to the score of the home team. Based on those numbers, KU should win by 40.91 points. Of course, that is a computer generated rating and it is the players and coaches on the field that determine the true outcome. It simply shows that KU should win by a large margin.

A year ago Northern Colorado traveled to Purdue. After three quarters, it was 21-0 and the final score was 42-10. So this isn't the first time Northern Colorado has traveled to play a high-quality opponent and they did keep the game somewhat close, for three quarters, last year.

At quarterback for the Bears is Bryan Waggener and he knows a little bit about playing big-time football. He started his career at Florida as a backup (fourth string) to Tim Tebow and transferred to Northern Colorado when he realized he wouldn't get much playing time at Florida. Last season he threw for 2,546 yards. The Bears also have a very athletic receiver in Darren McDonell. He is a little older than the other players having spent several years playing pro baseball. With talent at these skill positions, it is possible that they will hook up for some big plays and keep the Bears in the game.

The talent is definitely more plentiful on the Jayhawks side. Todd Reesing has proven himself the last two seasons to be an elite college quarterback. Jake Sharp is a proven quantity in the backfield. Kerry Meier, Dezmon Briscoe and Jonathan Wilson are probably the best receiving trio in the nation. There are certainly a few questions about the Jayhawks offensive line and the defense and hopefully they will prove to be better than expected. I'm also very curious to see Kale Pick, the backup quarterback, as he will most likely be the quarterback in the coming years.

I'm going to say that KU will win this game 59-10. The Bears just don't have the talent to keep this game close. This should give some of the KU backups and newcomers valuable playing experience that will help in the tougher games later in the season.

I'll post a wrap-up on the game and we'll see how close I did with my prediction.